The UK government is doing everything it can to stop a second independence referendum. The UK is buying time, but that time is fast running out. They agreed to the 2014 referendum because polling indicated the No campaign would win. Independence support started that campaign at only 27% but grew to 45% by the time of the vote. The latest polling has Yes at 53%, they buy time because they know they will lose.

In 2014, Scotland gave the UK one last chance after a long list of promises were made to Scotland. Those promises were broken one after another. In particular, the No campaign's key promise that voting NO would guarantee Scotland's continued EU membership. This was shattered by the 2016 Brexit vote when Scotland voted 62% Remain but was dragged out of the EU by England's larger population.

Some history - Scotland is not a colony, it is not seeking independence from an occupier, we are supposed to be an equal partner in the UK and can leave whenever we want via a legal route. The UK was formed through two unions, first was the Union of the Crowns in 1603 when James VI of Scotland ascended the Throne of England. In 1706, The Union of the Parliaments made Scotland and England one political state, but they remained two separate countries. The United Kingdom is a political union consisting of England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales. Great Britain is the main island which contains Scotland, England and Wales and the British Isles is the group of islands that also includes Ireland which is not part of the UK.

The best way to explain Scottish independence is to think about Switzerland. What if I told you I thought Switzerland would be far better off if it were not independent but was instead a distant region of one of its larger neighbours? If that sounds ridiculous, then you are beginning to understand Scottish independence. Let’s say Switzerland held a referendum on forming a Union with France with its 68 million population. 

If Switzerland signed a Union with France, France's larger population would decide every election, even if 100% of Swiss voters chose the same party, larger France could make Swiss votes irrelevant. The Government would be in Paris, so almost all power, opportunity and investment would go to Paris and many young Swiss would have to move to France to have a career. French GDP per head is only 68% of Switzerland’s, so Switzerland would be subsidising France but would be told that is just how much larger nations work. France would set your trade rules, immigration rules and tax rates - it would do this to meet the needs of France, not Switzerland because that’s where most people live, they would have no choice. The Government in Paris would decide what wars your soldiers fight and manage all of Switzerland’s international relations.

So, how would you vote? Would Switzerland give up its independence? No of course it wouldn’t but swap Switzerland for Scotland and France for the UK in the paragraph above and that is Scotland’s choice. The Union massively damages our economy, removes power, influence and opportunity from Scotland, diminishes our national culture and our confidence, cuts us off from the rest of the world and uses fear, propaganda and broken promises to maintain the Union. That tactic won't work again.

Scotland, England and Wales will remain the closest of friends and trading partners following Scotland’s independence. There is no malice in our desire to become independent. It is just that the Union doesn’t work for Scotland anymore.

 

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp is an economist, author and newspaper columnist and Director of Scotland's grassroots independence campaigning body Believe in Scotland.